FORT COLLINS—State Rep. Angie Paccione leads Rep. Marilyn Musgrave by three points in the race for Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District, according to the latest polling by Strategic Services (text of poll memo below).
The polling of 600 likely voters in the district shows Paccione with a 45 to 42 lead, with Reform Party candidate Eric Eidsness taking 6 percent of the vote, mostly from Independents and Republicans.
The poll sampled a slightly higher percentage of Republicans than the latest registration numbers indicate. Registered Democrats comprise 29 percent of the sample, registered Republicans 45 percent, and 26 percent are unaffiliated with either party. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
The poll also revealed that Musgrave’s approval rate is slipping, with just more than a third of voters giving her favorable ratings, and that only 71 percent of Republicans plan to vote for Musgrave.
Paccione said the latest polling shows that voters aren’t buying Musgrave’s lying character assassinations, especially since Musgrave and the Republican National Congressional Committee have heavily outspent Paccione so far in the race.
“Our momentum is building day by day. More and more people are starting to realize that Marilyn has failed in her four years in Congress, and no amount of lying will cover up that fact,” Paccione said. “The voters are starting to see through her ruse, and realize that she says one thing and does another. They want principled leadership that will stand up to the President and the special interests in Washington, D.C.”
6495 English Ivy Court
Springfield, VA 22152
Date: October 25, 2006
From: Andrew Myers
Dead Heat in Colorado 4
Despite the findings of several recent public polls, there’s a reason that national Republicans—who notably face an ever growing and quite costly national playing field—have yet to pull their funding from the expensive Denver airwaves in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. The reason is this—Angie Paccione and Marilyn Musgrave remain locked in a statistical dead heat, 45 to 42 percent, Paccione’s edge, with Eidsness capturing 6 percent of the vote*—stunning really when you consider that Musgrave and national Republicans have easily outspent Paccione and her allies by as much as eight-to-one at this point in the contest.
Among registered Democrats, Paccione leads 81 to 11 percent with 4 percent defecting to Eidsness. Among registered Republicans, 14 percent defect to Paccione, 6 percent to Eidsness, and Musgrave is at 71 percent. Among critical independents however, Paccione bests Musgrave by a whopping 32-points, 58 to 25 percent, while 8 percent support Eidsness.
In more good news for Paccione and her campaign, Musgrave remains critically wounded both personally and professionally, and it appears that her constant barrage of attacks on Paccione is backfiring to some extent. Indeed, Musgrave’s favorable-to unfavorable ratio has slipped from nearly dead even in late September to net negative today, with a plurality, 47 percent, giving her cool, unfavorable ratings, while just 38 percent giver her warm, positive ratings. Ninety-four percent of the electorate can identify her. Moreover, just under six-in-ten voters (59 percent) say that Musgrave is doing a fair-to-poor job in Congress, while just a little more than a third, 36 percent, say excellent-to-good.
* These findings are based on a survey of 600 likely November 2006 voters in Colorado’s 4th Congressional District. Calling took place from October 22- 24, 2006, and interviews were conducted by professional interviewers supervised by Strategic Services staff. The data were stratified to reflect the projected geographical contribution to the total expected vote. Registered Democrats comprise 29 percent of the sample, registered Republicans 45 percent, and 26 percent are unaffiliated with either party. The margin of error associated with these data at a 95 in 100 percent confidence level is +/- 4.0. The margin of error for subgroups is greater.